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Poll Indicates Walz Choice Diminishes Harris In Minnesota

 September 3, 2024

In a striking turn in the political landscape, Vice President Kamala Harris' decision to select Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her Vice Presidential running mate appears to have unfavorably affected her popularity among Minnesota voters. A recent poll conducted by KTSP and SurveyUSA reflects a notable dip in Harris' previously solid lead in the state against Donald Trump. This change comes unexpectedly following the Democratic National Convention.

The new survey indicates that Harris now leads Trump by a margin of 48% to 43%, which is significantly narrower than earlier polls, Newsmax reported.

This poll involved 635 likely Minnesota voters and was carried out between August 27 and August 29. The participants comprised 40% Democrats, 35% Republicans, and the remaining were independents, reflecting a representative sample of the state's political landscape.

Faltering Support Post-Nomination

Previously, Vice President Harris enjoyed a more comfortable lead over Trump in Minnesota, with her ahead by a margin of 50% to 40%. The introduction of Walz into the Vice Presidential slot solidifies her base and potentially draws more support. However, the latest figures suggest a reverse effect, with only 52% of respondents finding Governor Walz to be an excellent or good choice for Vice President.

Moreover, 34% of the polled Minnesotans viewed Walz's selection as a poor decision. These individuals, who were disproportionately male, under the age of 35, or parents, represented demographics from which Harris might have hoped for stronger support.

The survey needed to detail specific concerns about Walz's selection. Still, the expressed sentiment from these groups indicates underlying discontent that could challenge the Harris campaign in rallying key segments of the electorate.

Male Voters Show Discontent

Half of male respondents opposed Walz's nomination, showing strong disapproval of the decision. This stark disapproval among male voters presents a specific demographic challenge that the campaign must address.

Similarly, 51% of younger voters under 35 disapproved of Walz on the ticket, indicating that his selection did not impress this age group. Parents also represented a critical group, with 49% disapproving of Walz, further demonstrating that discontent spans various key electoral demographics.

This discontent in these demographic areas could tip the scales in what is shaping up to be a tightly contested race, creating additional hurdles in states critical to securing a victory in the Presidential elections.

Political Analyst Weighs In

Brian McClung, a communications director for former Republican Governor Tim Pawlenty, commented on the situation. "I think you see in the national polls that Kamala Harris is getting sort of a post-convention bump," McClung noted. However, he pointed out that "the opposite has occurred in your SurveyUSA poll, but I think this is where we expect the race to be." This insight suggests that while Harris might experience a generally favourable trend nationally, the local dynamics in Minnesota could diverge sharply.

McClung's observations highlight the often complex and localized nature of electoral politics, where national trends only sometimes align seamlessly with local sentiments. The discrepancy between the national and state-level reactions to Walz's nomination emphasizes the unique challenges facing national campaigns.

The pollsters measured within a credibility interval of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points. This statistical metric underscores the precision of the polling data despite the observed shift in voter sentiment in Minnesota.

Strategic Implications in the Future

This survey has significant implications for the Harris-Walz campaign as they approach the final months of the election cycle. The data suggests they need to recalibrate their campaign strategy, particularly in Minnesota, to address the apparent disapproval of Walz's selection among pivotal demographics.

Reworking campaign strategies to better resonate with these voters by emphasizing other aspects of the campaign's platform or highlighting different attributes of Walz's governance may be necessary to regain lost ground.

The Harris campaign has yet to officially respond to the poll results. Still, campaign strategists are undoubtedly dissecting every piece of data to fine-tune their approach in this key battleground state.