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Harris Campaign Hype Could Dwindle in Wake of Stock Market Plunge: Report

 August 6, 2024

The U.S. stock market took a significant hit on Monday, continuing the downward trend seen since Friday’s global sell-off, sparking concerns of a looming recession.

The market downturn could jeopardize Vice President Kamala Harris's candidacy and current surge in popularity as she faces criticism and growing economic unease, as Fox News reports.

On Monday, the U.S. stock market witnessed a dramatic plunge, further extending the losses incurred from a major global sell-off on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a steep fall, dropping by as much as 1,300 points. This decline was mirrored by both the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500, which also saw significant losses.

The weak jobs report and decreasing manufacturing activity in the United States contributed to this financial setback. The data presented a concerning picture of the world's biggest economy, igniting fears of economic instability. Last week, the Nasdaq 100 and Nasdaq Composite entered a correction phase following dismal forecasts from prominent technology firms.

Economic Indicators Signal Recession

The weak jobs data triggered the "Sahm Rule," a recession indicator that rings alarm bells when the three-month moving average of the jobless rate is at least half a percentage point higher than its 12-month low.

In this scenario, over the last three months, the unemployment rate averaged 4.13%, which is 0.63 percentage points higher than the 3.5% rate recorded in July 2023. This situation indicates the early stages of a recession, further deepening the economic concerns.

Harris's newly commenced campaign is finding itself challenged by this turbulent economic outlook.

As she faces increased criticism, the Trump campaign has seized the moment to mock her efforts, disseminating memes that highlight the plummeting stock market.

Harris Advised Against Over-Optimism

Reporter Michelle Price noted, "They just a little bit ago this morning, posted the ‘brat’ meme with ‘the stock market is tanking’ in the font." The Trump campaign's strategy seems focused on capitalizing on these economic woes to undermine Harris's credibility.

Price further elaborated, indicating that the public's perception of economic issues might shift as they begin to feel the pinch in their finances.

"That everything that has been in this honeymoon period might seem kind of silly compared to when people are looking at their 401Ks or when they’re going to start looking at gas prices, or they’re looking at what it costs at the grocery store, that the hype that is kind of coming back down to earth. We might be entering that phase that the Trump campaign has been waiting for."

This sentiment was echoed by political analyst John Berman, who advised caution in Harris's campaign rhetoric. "Harris needed to be careful to not make the same mistakes President Biden did when talking about the economy in painting 'a super rosy picture when people might not be feeling it.'"

Upcoming Challenges for Harris's Campaign

Berman emphasized the importance of adapting to the changing economic landscape. "It gets more challenging if the numbers aren’t so good. So that is something that the Harris team, I don’t think, were thinking about when they began their campaign 15 days ago. But now [they] have to think about it."

With only 15 days since her campaign launch, Harris now confronts the arduous task of addressing these newfound economic worries.

As the numbers continue to reflect a bleak economic reality, her campaign’s strategy needs realignment to resonate with a public increasingly anxious about financial stability.

This turbulent period in the stock market serves as a stark reminder of the fragility of the economy and its impact on political landscapes. The "Sahm Rule" indicator underscores the precariousness of the current economic state, pushing recession fears to the forefront of political discourse.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the recent stock market plunge and its correlation with weak economic indicators have cast a shadow over Vice President Kamala Harris's campaign.

As critical voices grow louder and economic anxieties heighten, her campaign must navigate this challenging terrain with caution and realistic economic narratives to maintain credibility and voter confidence.