Ann Selzer, a prominent and highly regarded pollster, announced her retirement on Sunday, marking the end of a decades-long career in election analysis.

Selzer's decision comes shortly after her Iowa poll, released just before the election, greatly missed the mark, showing Vice President Kamala Harris leading by three points in a state former President Donald Trump ultimately won by a 13-point margin, though the pollster said her retirement had been planned well before the unexpected failure, as the Washington Examiner reports.

The longtime pollster began her career with the Des Moines Register in 1997, quickly earning a reputation for her meticulous methodology and accurate predictions.

Over the years, her work gained national recognition, particularly for correct forecasts of major political moments such as Barack Obama’s significant Iowa caucus win in 2008 and Donald Trump’s strong performances in the state during the 2016 and 2020 elections.

Final Poll Sparks Controversy

Selzer's final poll for the 2024 election stirred both optimism and concern, depending on the political lens through which it was viewed. Released during the last week of the campaign, the survey suggested Harris held a narrow three-point lead in Iowa. This finding energized her campaign and raised alarms within Trump’s team, creating a ripple effect in the race’s closing days.

When the final electoral results showed a 16-point discrepancy between the poll and Election Day outcomes, questions were raised about the accuracy of her methods. The Des Moines Register responded by commissioning a thorough review of the poll. According to the analysis, there was no singular explanation for the error, highlighting the complex nature of polling in a rapidly changing political environment.

Retirement Decision Long in the Works

Selzer clarified that her decision to step away from election polling was unrelated to the controversy surrounding her final Iowa poll. She had informed the Des Moines Register over a year ago that she would not renew her contract in 2024, signaling the conclusion of her role at the helm of their polling operations.

“Would I have liked to make this announcement after a final poll aligned with Election Day results? Of course,” she said. “It’s ironic that it’s just the opposite.”

Throughout her career, Selzer earned a reputation as one of the most reliable voices in political polling. Her work consistently received high marks, including an A+ rating from Nate Silver’s analysis of poll accuracy. She became a trusted resource for campaigns, journalists, and voters alike.

A Legacy of Accuracy and Integrity

Reflecting on the polling miss, Selzer acknowledged the humbling nature of her work. “Polling is a science of estimation, and science has a way of periodically humbling the scientist,” she remarked. “Maybe that history of accuracy made the outlier position too comfortable.”

Despite the setback, she expressed gratitude for the lessons learned, emphasizing her openness to understanding unexpected outcomes in her field.

Her accurate predictions during pivotal moments in modern American politics solidified her legacy. From Obama’s Iowa triumph to Trump’s victories, Selzer’s work demonstrated her unparalleled ability to gauge voter sentiment.

Challenges of Modern Polling

The inaccuracy of her final poll highlights the challenges faced by pollsters in an increasingly complex political landscape. Shifting demographics, technological advancements, and unpredictable voter behavior make it harder to achieve the precision once associated with traditional polling.

For Selzer, these challenges underscore the evolving nature of the industry. “I’m humbled, yet always willing to learn from unexpected findings,” she said, signaling a willingness to reflect on the broader implications of her work.

As Selzer steps away, the Des Moines Register will likely look to other pollsters to fill the gap left by her departure. The institution has long relied on her expertise to provide valuable insights into Iowa’s political trends.

Looking Ahead Without Selzer

Her retirement not only marks the end of an era for the newspaper but also for the broader field of political analysis. Selzer’s work has shaped how campaigns approach the Iowa electorate, and her influence will undoubtedly endure.

Selzer leaves behind what supporters say is a legacy defined by dedication, accuracy, and integrity. While her final poll may not have met her high standards, it serves as a reminder of the inherent challenges in political polling.

For a career that spanned nearly three decades, Selzer’s contributions to election analysis will remain a cornerstone of Iowa’s political history.