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California's Late Ballot Counting Could Determine House Majority

 November 8, 2024

Control of the U.S. House of Representatives may now rest on the shoulders of California voters as several congressional races remain too close to call.

The outcome of critical contests in Orange County and the Central Valley will determine which party controls the House when the new Congress convenes, as Breitbart reports.

As the nation watches, California’s electoral process allows mail-in ballots postmarked by Election Day to be counted if they arrive within seven days after the election.

This law means final results are delayed as late-arriving ballots are tallied.

The Prolonged Count Influences Political Control

California has become known for its prolonged ballot counts, which can influence the power dynamics in the U.S. House of Representatives.

Currently, the races under scrutiny are spread across Orange County and the Central Valley, regions critical for both parties.

Democrats, seizing the opportunity to solidify their hold on the House, had targeted up to five Republican-held seats.

One of these includes a seat in a district recently vacated by Rep. Katie Porter.

However, initial results from Wednesday following Election Day show Republicans leading in all six pivotal races, albeit by slim margins.

Strategists Assess Remaining Ballots

In response to the tight races, campaign strategists on both sides are now focused on the number of remaining ballots.

Estimates suggest that more than 100,000 votes are still out in the key districts, potentially shifting the current standings.

During previous election cycles, notably in 2018, a significant "blue shift" occurred where Democrats managed to capture seven GOP-held seats in California through late-counted ballots.

This phenomenon was further amplified by the practice of ballot harvesting, a method legally utilized by Democrats to collect and submit absentee ballots on behalf of voters, and later adopted by Republicans as well.

Historical Context of Ballot Practices

The legal use of ballot harvesting in 2018 by Democrats led to a shift in several seats, altering the state's political landscape significantly. Republicans, taking a page from this playbook, have since embraced similar tactics in hopes of reclaiming lost ground.

Reflecting on the 2018 results, then-Republican House Speaker Paul Ryan labeled the outcome as “bizarre,” highlighting the unexpected nature of such shifts due to late ballot counts.

The Final Count and Its Implications

With the memory of past elections in mind, both parties are keenly aware that the ongoing count could yet sway the final outcome.

The slow trickle of results keeps candidates and voters on edge, waiting to see if history will repeat itself with another dramatic shift.

This election's resolution could take days or even weeks as officials diligently process each mail-in ballot, ensuring that every vote is counted, and the voice of every voter is heard in these critical districts.