In a stunning turn of events, the New Jersey gubernatorial race has become a nail-biter as Republican candidate Jack Ciattarelli gains ground over Democrat Mikie Sherrill with an unexpected edge in early voting, as Breitbart reports.

The contest, now tied at 43% support for each candidate according to September polls, has sparked concern among Democrats over Sherrill’s faltering campaign while Ciattarelli leverages strong voter outreach and endorsements.

The race to become New Jersey’s governor has tightened significantly in recent weeks, with polling data from September showing both Sherrill and Ciattarelli deadlocked at 43% support. This unexpected shift has put Democrats on edge as they watch their candidate struggle to maintain momentum.

Early voting shifts edge to GOP

For the first time in the 2025 election cycle, Republicans have taken a lead in mail-in ballot returns, surpassing Democrats with 18.6% to 16.6%. Despite Democrats still holding the majority of mailed ballots at 62.3%, this narrow gap in returns signals a potential change in voter behavior. Election analyst Michael Pruser observed, "Republicans now hold a two-point lead in return rates."

Early voting and mail-in ballots are seen as critical to determining the outcome of this race. Ciattarelli’s campaign has emphasized voter turnout, with efforts to mobilize supporters through early participation. Scott Presler of Early Vote Action highlighted the importance, stating that the race is “winnable” for Republicans if participation remains high.

Meanwhile, Sherrill’s team has been working to maintain their base, focusing on affordability issues in campaign messaging. Campaign manager Alex Ball defended their strategy, insisting that Sherrill’s emphasis on cost-of-living concerns “has been her message since Day One.”

Democrats sound alarm

Within the Democratic Party, there is growing unease about Sherrill’s campaign performance as national leaders point to operational missteps. Reports from Axios indicate dissatisfaction with her reliance on staff from Washington and a lack of coherent messaging. Democrat strategist Irene Lin cautioned that "tired anti-Trump attacks aren’t enough" to win over voters.

Lin further criticized Sherrill’s approach, noting that the campaign “has spent a fortune on polling and has no message beyond she flies helicopters and Ciattarelli loves Trump.” This blunt assessment reflects broader frustrations among party insiders. Sherrill’s inability to articulate a clear vision has become a focal point of concern.

Sherrill has also faced scrutiny over personal matters, including questions about her family’s finances and stock trades. In a recent interview, she stumbled through a response, saying, “I, I haven’t … I don’t believe I did,” when pressed on the issue. This moment has fueled perceptions of unpreparedness among voters and critics alike.

Controversies, ads shaping public opinion

Adding to Sherrill’s challenges are controversies tied to her past at the Naval Academy and her children’s admissions, which have drawn negative attention. Ciattarelli’s campaign has seized on these issues, launching targeted ads and even creating a website to highlight Sherrill’s perceived weaknesses. These efforts have amplified the Democrat’s struggles in the public eye.

Both candidates have centered their advertising on the pressing issue of high utility costs, though their proposed solutions differ sharply. Sherrill has pushed for policies aimed at easing financial burdens, while Ciattarelli offers alternative plans to address the same concern. This focus underscores the economic anxieties of New Jersey voters.

Ciattarelli, on the other hand, has gained traction through strategic alliances, securing endorsements from former Democrats and key labor leaders. These endorsements have bolstered his campaign’s credibility and broadened his appeal across party lines. His momentum appears to be building as the race progresses.

Final push hinges on turnout

As the election nears, both campaigns are intensifying efforts to drive voter turnout, particularly through early and mail-in voting. For Republicans, maintaining their edge in ballot returns could prove decisive in a race this close. Ciattarelli’s team continues to rally supporters with a strong ground game.

For Sherrill, overcoming the current narrative of a faltering campaign will require a sharp pivot in strategy and messaging. Democrats are hopeful she can regain footing by addressing voter concerns more directly. The party’s majority in mailed ballots offers some reassurance, but the gap in returns remains a worry.

With the race tied and stakes high, New Jersey’s gubernatorial contest is shaping up to be a defining moment for both parties. The outcome could signal broader trends for upcoming elections nationwide. All eyes are on the Garden State as voters prepare to make their choice.