Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are nearly tied in voter support in the pivotal battleground state of Virginia, according to a new poll.

The survey, conducted by the University of Mary Washington’s Center for Leadership and Media Studies, found Harris barely leading in the traditionally blue state, with 47% of the vote compared to Trump’s 46%, representing a statistical dead heat and positive news for Trump, as the New York Post reports.

The survey results highlight how hotly contested Virginia has become in the lead-up to the 2024 presidential election, despite its history of leaning toward Democratic candidates in recent years.

The poll was carried out from Sept. 3 to 9 and indicated that third-party candidates have drawn 4% of the vote, further complicating the race.

In a direct matchup between Harris and Trump, without third-party candidates, Harris’ lead extended slightly to 48%, while Trump held steady at 46%. However, with the poll’s margin of error factored in, both results show the race is essentially tied.

Historical Context Adds Importance to Poll

Virginia, a state that has leaned Democratic in recent presidential elections, may be turning into a more competitive battleground than previously thought. In the 2020 election, President Joe Biden won Virginia by 10 percentage points, and both Hillary Clinton and former President Barack Obama carried the state in 2016 and 2012, respectively.

However, Virginia’s recent political trends suggest the state is no longer a guaranteed win for Democrats. Republican Glenn Youngkin won the governor’s race in 2021, signaling a potential shift in voter sentiment. Political forecasters, who once considered Virginia to be securely Democratic, now suggest it may lean only slightly in favor of Harris as the race intensifies.

Poll Shows Virginia's Battleground Status

This new polling data points to Virginia emerging once again as a critical battleground. "This new survey suggests Virginia should be getting a much closer look from both presidential campaigns," said Stephen J. Farnsworth, a political scientist at the University of Mary Washington. “Virginia may deserve to be treated as a ‘swing state’ once again this year.”

The poll's timing, just over a year before the 2024 election, is significant. Both candidates and their parties may now prioritize the state, with resources and campaign events likely to increase in the coming months. Given the poll's narrow margins, both campaigns will need to focus on attracting undecided voters and ensuring strong voter turnout.

Third-Party Candidates Add Complexity

The presence of third-party candidates in the poll introduces another layer of complexity to the race. With 4% of voters expressing support for third-party options, the final outcome could be affected by how these votes shift closer to Election Day. If those voters move toward one of the major party candidates, it could tip the balance in what is already an extremely close race.

In past elections, third-party candidates have sometimes played a key role in determining the final result in battleground states. Whether that will happen in Virginia remains to be seen, but both major party candidates will likely try to win over voters considering third-party options.

Polling Accuracy and Margin of Error

As with any poll, it’s important to consider the margin of error. In this survey, the small difference between Harris and Trump’s support is within the margin of error, making the race too close to call definitively. Polling experts suggest this means that the current numbers are best viewed as a snapshot of the race, with plenty of room for change in the coming months.

This margin of error is particularly crucial in battleground states like Virginia, where a small number of votes could determine the outcome. Both Harris and Trump will need to focus on every aspect of their campaigns in the state, as even minor shifts in voter preferences could alter the dynamics of the race.

Both Campaigns to Increase Focus on Virginia

With the 2024 election approaching, the deadlock between Harris and Trump in Virginia suggests both campaigns will need to increase their focus on the state. Historically, Virginia has played a key role in presidential elections, and it appears poised to do so again. The tight race also means that campaign strategies in Virginia may differ from other states, with a focus on winning over undecided voters and energizing the base.

As the election draws nearer, both candidates will likely target Virginia with increased campaign visits, advertising, and voter outreach efforts. The fact that the race is so close means that every voter could make a difference.

Conclusion: Virginia's Status In 2024

The recent poll results out of Virginia show a tight race between Vice President Harris and former President Trump, with both candidates nearly tied in voter support.

The survey, conducted by the University of Mary Washington, indicates that Virginia is once again a key battleground in the upcoming presidential election. While historical trends suggest a Democratic advantage, the tight race and the presence of third-party candidates highlight the state's evolving political landscape.

With both campaigns expected to focus heavily on Virginia, the final outcome could have a significant impact on the national result.

As election day approaches, the race in Virginia will be one to watch closely. Both Harris and Trump will need to appeal to undecided voters and shore up support in what has become a critical battleground state.