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Harris's Debate Performance, Taylor Swift Support Offer VP Limited Boost: Poll

 September 16, 2024

A new poll conducted by ABC News suggests that Vice President Kamala Harris remains in the lead against former President Donald Trump, following their much-anticipated presidential debate.

The survey, which took place from Sept. 11-13, shows that Harris holds a six-point lead over Trump, with 52% support among likely voters compared to Trump’s 46%, but a comparison of the data to earlier numbers from August shows that last week's debate, which pundits said the VP won, did little to alter the overall race dynamic, as the Washington Examiner reports

Apparently also having little impact when it comes to boosting Harris' fortunes was a recent endorsement received from pop star Taylor Swift.

Voter Reactions to Debate, Endorsements

While Harris saw a boost in her personal appeal following the debate, the overall impact on voter preference has been limited. According to the poll, 37% of voters said the debate improved their opinion of Harris, while 23% stated that it made them view her less favorably.

The majority of Harris's favorability gains came from Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents, with 69% of them now holding a more positive view of her.

In contrast, Trump did not fare as well in terms of public perception. Poll respondents were twice as likely to say the debate worsened their opinion of the former president, underscoring a difficult night for his campaign. Only 34% of Republicans and GOP-leaning Independents said their view of Trump had improved after the debate, signaling a tepid response even from his base.

Swift's Endorsement Has Minimal Impact

Despite high-profile support from Swift, Harris did not see a significant bump in voter enthusiasm. Only 6% of voters reported that Swift’s endorsement made them more likely to vote for Harris, while 13% said it had the opposite effect. The overwhelming majority, 81%, said the endorsement had no bearing on their decision.

Those who reacted negatively to Swift’s endorsement were largely Trump supporters, who have historically been skeptical of celebrity endorsements in politics. The limited influence of Swift’s backing suggests that endorsements from prominent figures may have a smaller role in shaping voter decisions than anticipated.

Voter Support Remains Steady

Voter preferences for both candidates have remained relatively stable throughout the campaign. According to the poll, 73% of Trump supporters have backed him throughout the year, while 67% of Harris supporters have remained loyal since she announced her candidacy.

Harris has benefited slightly more from previously undecided voters, with 25% of her current supporters saying they were once undecided. In contrast, 17% of Trump’s backers were initially undecided but have now committed to his campaign.

Both candidates are appealing to their core constituencies, with little crossover between their voter bases. This consistency in support underscores the deeply polarized nature of the 2024 election, where few voters seem willing to change their minds.

Key Issues Dividing Voters

One of the most significant divisions between the two candidates lies in their perceived strengths on major issues. Trump is widely viewed as the stronger candidate on economic issues, including inflation, which continues to be a top concern for many voters. His campaign has emphasized these areas, resonating with voters who prioritize the economy above all else.

On the other hand, Harris is seen as more capable when it comes to healthcare, abortion rights, and protecting democracy -- issues that have galvanized much of her base. Her campaign has focused on these topics, particularly in light of recent Supreme Court decisions and perceived challenges to voting rights.

Polling Variance and Electoral College Implications

While ABC News’s poll shows Harris with a six-point lead, other post-debate polls have painted a slightly different picture. Some surveys show Harris leading Trump by just 2-5 percentage points, with many results falling within the margin of error. These variations suggest that the national race remains close, even if Harris has a slight edge.

However, it’s important to remember that national polling does not always predict the final outcome of a U.S. presidential election. The Electoral College, which operates on a state-by-state basis, will ultimately determine the winner. With several battleground states still up for grabs, both candidates will need to focus on securing key electoral votes in the coming weeks.

Little Movement Despite High Stakes

Overall, despite the high-profile debate and the star power of Taylor Swift’s endorsement, the dynamics of the 2024 presidential race remain largely unchanged. Voter support for both Harris and Trump has proven resilient, with few undecided voters left to sway.

As the campaign enters its final stretch, both candidates will need to continue appealing to their base while trying to win over any remaining undecided voters.

For now, Harris maintains her lead, but the race remains competitive. The coming weeks could prove decisive as the candidates continue to spar over key issues and make their final pitches to the American electorate.