Kamala Harris and Donald Trump went head-to-head in their first presidential debate Tuesday night, engaging in a fierce exchange on key national issues.

Though a CNN flash poll showed that 63% of viewers believed Harris won the debate, experts are unsure as to whether this result will translate to a shift in election momentum, with many referencing the unsuccessful experience of Hillary Clinton in the 2016 race, as Newsweek reports.

The debate, held in Philadelphia, covered several heated topics, including immigration, the economy, and abortion.

Throughout the night, Trump was fact-checked four times, including instances in which he discussed election irregularities in the 2020 contest and made assertions about the conduct of migrants in Ohio.

Harris Emerges Victorious in CNN Flash Poll

Both candidates claimed victory in the hours following the debate. However, a CNN flash poll revealed that a majority of viewers, 63%, believed Harris outperformed Trump. Meanwhile, 37% of respondents sided with Trump. Despite this result, political analysts urge caution in interpreting the outcome of such polls.

Pollster Nate Silver pointed out that winning a post-debate poll often correlates with gains in broader election surveys. However, he also noted that "there's still a good chance that Trump could become president again, although Harris probably reduced the chances of that last night."

The History of Debate Polls

Historically, CNN’s flash polls have produced mixed results. For instance, in the 2012 election, Mitt Romney was said to have won the first presidential debate but ultimately lost the election to Barack Obama by a 4-point margin. Similarly, in 2016, Hillary Clinton was perceived to have won her debates against Trump but failed to secure the presidency. These examples demonstrate the unpredictability of translating debate success into actual election outcomes.

The CNN poll also provided insights into the political makeup of its respondents. Forty-one percent identified as Democrats, 26% as Republicans, and the remaining 33% as independents. This distribution highlights the potential biases in such polling, with a higher proportion of Democrats possibly influencing the results.

Experts Remain Cautious About Debate's Long-Term Impact

While the flash poll suggested Harris won, experts remain divided on whether this will have a lasting impact on the election. Thomas Gift, a professor of political science, pointed out that only a fraction of Americans watched the debate live, and many of those viewers likely had their opinions set beforehand. "These are voters who are disproportionately politically activated and have already made up their minds on Harris and Trump," Gift explained.

Jonathan Parker, an expert on American politics, added that media coverage following the debate might have a more significant influence than the debate itself. "The media coverage over the next week may be more powerful in shifting opinions," he said, emphasizing that the debate alone may not sway undecided voters.

Harris' Debate Performance and Its Impact

Despite the uncertainty, Harris’ debate performance did have a noticeable impact on her standing in the election. Bookmakers and prediction models, including those from FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, showed her odds of winning improving in the wake of the debate. FiveThirtyEight’s prediction model now projects Harris winning 279 Electoral College votes, a figure just above the threshold needed for victory.

However, Nate Silver’s model still gives Trump a 61% chance of winning the electoral vote, compared to Harris' 38%. This discrepancy shows that while Harris may have gained some ground, the race remains competitive.

The Role of Flash Polls in Election Predictions

CNN's flash poll for this debate reflected a much closer margin than a previous poll taken during a debate between Joe Biden and Trump. In that earlier poll, Trump won by a larger margin of 34%. The tighter result in this debate suggests a more divided electorate.

Political analysts have repeatedly warned against overinterpreting the results of flash polls. These polls reflect the views of a small portion of the electorate and are not necessarily indicative of broader public opinion. Jonathan Parker also stressed that Harris’ strong performance could sway undecided voters but agreed that its long-term impact remains unclear.

Debate's Role in a Tight Election

As the election nears, Harris’ debate performance may become increasingly important, especially as she works to build momentum. According to Parker, Harris’ strong showing made a "good first impression" on many voters. In a tight election, this could be critical for a candidate like Harris, who remains relatively unknown to some segments of the electorate.

However, the real test will come in the weeks ahead, as both candidates continue to campaign and more debates are held. Harris may have won the night in the eyes of CNN poll respondents, but whether that victory will have a lasting impact remains to be seen.

Conclusion

Ultimately, while Harris appears to have won the first round in her debate against Trump, the true impact of her performance will unfold as the campaign progresses.

Flash polls like CNN’s offer a snapshot of immediate public reaction, but they are far from definitive predictors of election outcomes.

As history -- such as the experience of Hillary Clinton -- has shown, debate victories do not always translate into wins on Election Day.