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Michelle Obama Leads Trump in Hypothetical Matchup: Poll

 July 4, 2024

According to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll, former first lady Michelle Obama would outperform former President Donald Trump in a hypothetical 2024 presidential matchup.

The poll's findings have ignited conversations surrounding possible Democratic replacements for President Joe Biden, despite Michelle Obama's repeatedly declared stance against running, as Newsweek reports

Conducted between July 1 and July 2, the poll surveyed 1,070 U.S. adults, including 892 registered voters. Of the registered voters, 50% indicated their support for Michelle Obama, while 39% favored Donald Trump. This result has significantly fueled discussions about alternative Democratic candidates in light of perceived weaknesses in Biden's current campaign.

Poll Highlights Potential for Change on Ticket

President Joe Biden, now 81, has faced declining support, partly due to a recent poor showing in a debate. This performance has bolstered skepticism about his ability to lead a strong campaign.

Despite this, Biden remains resolute in his decision to continue his race. Seth Schuster, a spokesperson for Biden's campaign, confirmed, "Biden was not dropping out."

In the same Reuters/Ipsos poll, results indicated that both Biden and Trump each secured 40% support in a hypothetical matchup, underscoring the tightly contested nature of their likely rematch.

Obama's Reluctance to Enter Race

Amid the speculation of her potential candidacy, Michelle Obama has consistently maintained her disinterest in running for president. Her director of communications, Crystal Carson, reiterated, "As former first lady Michelle Obama has expressed several times over the years, she will not be running for president."

Carson further emphasized, "Mrs. Obama supports President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris' reelection campaign."

The poll results highlighted that Obama outperformed other prominent Democratic figures as the hypothetical nominee in matchups against Trump. Vice President Kamala Harris trailed Trump with 42% to Trump's 43%, while other governors such as Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer, and J.B. Pritzker also fell behind in perceived voter support.

Significance Of The Poll's Findings

The poll's margin of error was recorded at 3.2 percentage points, lending statistical weight to its findings. These results point to a significant amount of Democratic voters' nostalgia for the Obama era.

Thomas Gift, a political science expert, noted, "Polls showing that Michelle Obama could beat Donald Trump simply reflect nostalgia for Barack." He added, "It's easy to defeat the competition when you have no policy platform, no agenda, and haven't been subjected to the kind of scrutiny that presidential candidates are in 2024."

Furthermore, Gift expressed skepticism about the practical implications of such polls, stating, "The former first lady has displayed zero interest in running, which means that suggestions that she could skydive into the convention and save the Democratic Party from itself look like a fantasy."

Reactions From Trump And Biden Camps

From the Trump camp, the former president dismissed the significance of these findings during a campaign event. "They polled everybody. They polled Michelle Obama, she polls very badly. No, she polls terribly," he claimed.

The broader public opinion seems aligned with a desire for fresh leadership. The poll showed that 32% of Democrats believe Biden should exit the race, which mirrors a broader sentiment as 56% of overall Americans hold the same view.

Conversely, 46% of Americans are of the opinion that Trump should also step down, reflecting general dissatisfaction with both potential candidates among the electorate.


In summary, the recent Reuters/Ipsos poll has illuminated significant voter sentiment toward a potential 2024 presidential contest, showcasing Michelle Obama as a popular alternative to both Joe Biden and Donald Trump. While Biden remains entrenched in his campaign, skepticism about his viability is growing.

Despite the speculation, Michelle Obama has reiterated her lack of interest in running for the presidency, advocating instead for Biden and Harris' reelection bid.

These polling trends reveal substantial nostalgia for the Obama era and indicate a broader search for effective leadership among American voters as the nation prepares for the next presidential election cycle.