The Montana Supreme Court has upheld a ruling to allow Green Party Senate candidate Robert Barb to remain on the November 2024 ballot, potentially shifting the dynamics of one of the most critical Senate races in the country.

The state high court's decision could influence Democrat Sen. Jon Tester's re-election chances, which may impact the balance of power in the Senate, as Fox News reports.

Democratic Party's Challenge to Green Party Candidacy

The legal battle began in August when the Montana Democratic Party filed a lawsuit aimed at removing Barb from the ballot. They sued Montana's Secretary of State Christi Jacobsen and the state of Montana, alleging that Barb's nomination was invalid. The challenge came after Barb was named as the Green Party's Senate nominee following the withdrawal of the original candidate after the August primary.

The Montana Democratic Party argued that the process violated state election law. Their concern centered on the fact that Barb was not originally selected in the Green Party primary but was appointed after the leading candidate dropped out. They sought to prevent Barb from running in the November election, fearing that his presence could siphon votes away from incumbent Senator Jon Tester.

Despite these efforts, a district court rejected the Democratic Party's attempt to remove Barb from the ballot in early September. The court ruled in favor of allowing Barb to remain as a candidate, dismissing the arguments raised by the Democrats.

Supreme Court Upholds District Court Ruling

Undeterred by the district court’s decision, the Montana Democratic Party escalated the matter by seeking a writ of supervisory control, which would have overruled the lower court’s ruling. However, this attempt also failed.

On Tuesday, the Montana Supreme Court upheld the district court’s ruling, ensuring that Robert Barb will appear on the November 2024 ballot. In a 13-page decision, the state’s highest court concluded that the lower court had not erred in its legal interpretation.

"MDP has not convinced us that the District Court erred in its rulings in its September 3, 2024 Order," the court stated. "Since we have not concluded that the District Court is proceeding under a mistake of law, this matter is not susceptible to writ of supervisory control."

Republican Gains in Polls with Third-Party Candidate

The decision to keep Barb on the ballot may have far-reaching consequences. Polling indicates that third-party candidates could hurt Tester's chances of retaining his seat. With the presence of the Green Party and Libertarian candidates in the race, Tester’s support could be split, particularly among voters sympathetic to progressive or anti-establishment causes.

Recent polling conducted by AARP shows that Tester's Republican challenger, Tim Sheehy, is currently leading in a two-way race. The poll reveals that Sheehy holds a six-point lead over Tester in a head-to-head matchup.

However, when third-party candidates like Barb are factored into the equation, Sheehy's lead increases to eight points, demonstrating the potential impact of Barb’s candidacy. This shift has alarmed Democrats who view Tester's seat as critical to maintaining their narrow majority in the Senate.

Political Experts Shift Senate Race Ratings

The potential for a third-party spoiler in the Montana Senate race has drawn the attention of political analysts. Several leading political forecasting organizations have revised their predictions for the race.

Both The Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, respected nonpartisan election analysis groups, recently shifted their ratings for the Montana Senate contest from "toss-up" to "leans Republican." This change reflects the growing belief that Sheehy could unseat Tester, particularly with third-party candidates dividing the vote.

Analysts have pointed to Montana's traditionally conservative electorate and Tester's vulnerability as reasons why the race has become increasingly challenging for Democrats. With the presence of Robert Barb, the Democratic Party now faces the added obstacle of a fractured left-leaning vote.

Montana Secretary of State Responds

Following the Montana Supreme Court's ruling, Secretary of State Christi Jacobsen expressed satisfaction with the outcome. In a statement shared with Fox News Digital, Jacobsen celebrated the decision as a victory for Montana voters and the state's election process.

"I'm pleased that the Supreme Court unanimously rejected this Hail Mary attempt to undermine Montana election law," Jacobsen said. "From the start, this lawsuit was a baseless political game from Washington elites that showed complete disrespect for Montana and our election officials."

Jacobsen’s statement suggests a broader concern that national interests, particularly from Democratic leadership in Washington, were driving the legal challenge rather than a genuine concern for state election integrity.

Implications for Jon Tester and the Senate Majority

The inclusion of Barb on the ballot could pose a serious threat to Sen. Jon Tester’s re-election bid. Tester, who has served as Montana’s senior senator since 2007, has faced tough re-election battles before. However, the presence of a Green Party candidate has the potential to siphon away votes that Tester may need to win in a tightly contested race.

If Tester loses, it could have significant implications for the balance of power in the Senate. Currently, Democrats hold a slim majority, and every seat will be crucial in determining control of the chamber in 2025.

As the November election approaches, both parties will likely be watching the Montana Senate race closely. With the potential for a third-party candidate to tip the scales, the stakes have never been higher for Jon Tester and the Democratic Party.