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Open Convention Could Have Unexpected Impact on Harris Bid, Democrats’ 2024 Prospects

 July 22, 2024

President Joe Biden has unexpectedly withdrawn from the 2024 presidential race, paving the way for a potentially contentious Democratic National Convention.

With Biden's endorsement, Vice President Kamala Harris now faces a complex and potentially fractious path toward securing the Democratic nomination, as the Daily Mail reports

Biden's Exit Paves Way for Harris

On Sunday, President Biden announced his decision to bow out of the 2024 presidential race. In the same breath, he extended his endorsement to Vice President Kamala Harris.

In response to Biden's announcement, Harris declared her intention to seek the Democratic presidential nomination. A move that garnered immediate support from numerous Democratic leaders, governors, and key figures within the party. The upcoming Democratic National Convention, set to kick off on August 19 in Chicago, looms large on the horizon.

Early Support and Endorsements

Following Sunday's developments, the Tennessee delegation expressed its backing for Harris. This support was swiftly followed by the delegations from South Carolina, North Carolina, and New Hampshire, all announcing their unanimous endorsement.

Despite this significant backing, Harris has yet to secure the support of all prominent Democratic figures. Among those who have not yet declared their position is former President Barack Obama.

Amid this backdrop, Sen. Joe Manchin is said to be contemplating re-registering as a Democrat to make his own run for the party's presidential nomination.

Potential for a Brokered Convention

Biden's withdrawal has raised the specter of a brokered Democratic convention, something not seen in several decades. A brokered convention involves intricate negotiations and repeated voting rounds until a candidate achieves a majority of delegate support.

The last instance of a brokered convention took place in 1952. The most prolonged brokered convention occurred in 1924, extending over sixteen days and requiring 103 ballots to conclude.

A contested convention arises when no candidate clinches a majority on the initial ballot. In such scenarios, the party must engage in a drawn-out process to determine their nominee.

Risks and Historical Context

Political parties generally strive to sidestep brokered and contested conventions, as they usually reduce the chances of winning the presidency.

There is a historical precedent for these concerns. Of the dozens of conventions held between 1868 and 1984, eighteen candidates were nominated on multiple ballots, and only seven emerged victorious in the subsequent elections.

One notable example includes the 1980 Democratic convention, where Ted Kennedy's argument for an open convention ultimately failed against incumbent President Jimmy Carter.

Unity as a Strategy Against Trump

Given the current electoral landscape, Democrats are rallying behind Harris to present a united front against former President Donald Trump, who remains highly unpopular among many voters.

Leonard Steinhorn, a professor at American University, commented on the situation, saying, "We really don't have any standards or benchmarks or known procedures." He described the process as somewhat unprecedented.

Steinhorn underlined the importance of unity, stating, "You want a party united behind the person who seems to be the popular choice of the members of that party, of the voters."

The Trump Factor

Steinhorn also remarked on Trump's role in the dynamics of the upcoming election. "This is going to be an unusual year because Donald Trump has very, very high negatives," he observed.

Reflecting on the potential silver lining for Democrats, Steinhorn added, "Because Donald Trump is so singularly unpopular as the opposing party nominee, it potentially does give the Democratic Party a small advantage."

Conclusion

In conclusion, the Democratic National Convention this August promises to be a pivotal event in the 2024 presidential race. With President Biden stepping down and endorsing Kamala Harris, significant support for Harris is emerging from within the party.

Nonetheless, the possibility of a brokered convention adds a layer of uncertainty to the proceedings. The Democrats are seeking to consolidate their support to avoid a protracted nomination process, especially in the face of a contentious election cycle with Donald Trump as the likely Republican nominee. The coming months will reveal whether the party can unite behind Harris and navigate the complex political waters ahead.