Poll suggests Trump would stand strong chance of winning hypothetical third term
A recent poll has sparked discussion over a hypothetical scenario in which President Donald Trump could make a bid for a third term in office.
According to the Rasmussen poll, a majority of likely voters expressed confidence that Trump could secure a third presidential term if the constitutional rule limiting presidents to two terms was repealed, as Newsmax reports.
The Rasmussen survey, conducted from Feb. 11 to 13, included 1,233 likely U.S. voters and carries a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.
Among the participants, 53% considered it likely that Trump would triumph in a third-term election if the 22nd Amendment, which currently restricts presidents to two terms, were abolished. Delving deeper, 32% said they see it as "very likely" Trump would return to the White House under such circumstances.
Views on 22nd Amendment Repeal
However, not all respondents shared this view. A total of 35% found it improbable that Trump could win another term, with 19% dismissing the idea as "not at all likely." Meanwhile, 11% of the surveyed voters remained undecided on the matter.
Regarding the potential repeal of the 22nd Amendment, opinions were also mixed. While 35% supported the idea, with 19% expressing strong approval, a significant 59% opposed changing the Constitution to facilitate a third presidential term -- 48% of them strongly resistant.
Demographic Discrepancies in Poll Results
Views diverged across political parties. For instance, 52% of Republican respondents supported repealing the amendment, in contrast to 26% of Democrats and 29% of independents.
Exploring the possibility of Trump winning if the amendment were repealed, 71% of Republicans believed it conceivable, while 39% of Democrats and 50% of independents concurred.
Furthermore, perceptions differed between male and female voters; 57% of males thought it likely Trump could win in 2028, compared to 50% of females who agreed.
Additionally, age and ethnicity factored into people's opinions. Voters younger than 40 were notably more supportive of repealing the amendment and entertained the idea of a third Trump term more than their older counterparts.
Impact of Political Ideology on Opinions
The poll also showed divides based on race and political ideology. Approval of repealing the 22nd Amendment stood at 30% among white voters, 38% among Black voters, 48% among Hispanic voters, and 46% among other minorities.
On the ideological spectrum, 50% of conservative respondents saw merit in the amendment's repeal, while stronger opposition emerged from moderates and liberals—54% of moderates and 75% of liberals expressed firm disapproval.
Respondents who were staunch supporters of Trump's presidency demonstrated particular interest in altering the amendment, with 58% favoring its repeal.
Contrasting Opinions Among Voter Groups
The poll also unveiled insights into voters who supported Vice President Kamala Harris, 73% of whom strongly opposed amending the 22nd Amendment, highlighting deep-seated divisions based on past voting behavior.
The discussion around a potential rule change, despite its hypothetical nature, reveals underlying sentiments about Trump's influence and the country's political future.
The split in opinions suggests residents remain deeply divided on both the feasibility and desirability of adjusting term limits for U.S. presidents.
As debates over the 22nd Amendment unfold, these findings provide a window into the electorate's varied perspectives. While the Rasmussen poll showcased strong feelings on both sides, the topic remains largely speculative, given the absence of any imminent legislative movement to alter the amendment's constraints.
This hypothetical scenario, while interesting, reminds us of the persistent polarization in American politics and prompts reflection on the checks and balances designed to uphold democracy in the United States.