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Poll: Trump Holds Significant Lead Over Biden in Iowa Race

 June 18, 2024

Former President Donald Trump has an 18-point advantage over President Joe Biden in a four-way contest in Iowa, according to a Des Moines Register/Mediacom/Selzer & Co. poll conducted following Trump's conviction in the New York business records trial.

Making matters worse for the incumbent, Biden faces substantial disapproval ratings both in Iowa and across the country at a time when his family is grappling with a number of legal ordeals, as Breitbart reports.

The poll data shows Trump with the support of 50% of likely voters in Iowa, while Biden garners 32%. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Chase Oliver trail with 9% and 2%, respectively. Among the remaining respondents, 3% support another candidate, 3% remain undecided, and 1% indicated they will not vote.

Trump’s Iowa Post-Conviction Standing

The timing of this poll is significant as it was conducted from June 9-14, 2024, immediately after Trump's conviction.

Despite facing legal challenges of his own, Trump's support remains robust in Iowa, increasing from 48% in February to 50% in June. This represents a considerable margin compared to his 8.2 percentage-point victory over Biden in Iowa during the 2020 presidential election.

Biden, on the other hand, is grappling with low approval ratings in the state. Only 28% of Iowan adults approve of Biden's performance, while a striking 67% disapprove, and 5% have no opinion.

This negative sentiment is even more pronounced among younger Iowans under 35, where approval drops to just 15% with a disapproval rate of 76%.

Low Approval Ratings for Biden Nationwide

On a national level, Biden's approval ratings are similarly underwhelming. As of Monday, he holds a net approval rating of -18.1% with 38.1% approving and 56.3% disapproving of his performance. FiveThirtyEight's historical analysis shows that Biden has the worst net approval rating of any president 1,240 days into office over the past 70 years, peaking at -19.4%.

The Des Moines Register/Mediacom/Selzer & Co. poll is a reflection of the shifting political landscape in Iowa. Out of 806 Iowan adults surveyed, 632 were identified as likely voters. The results come with a margin of error of ±3.5% for adults and ±3.9% for likely voters.

Breakdown of Poll Results and Disapproval Ratings

Brianne Pfannenstiel, a notable political analyst, commented on the stark disapproval rates among younger demographics. "Just 15% of those younger than 35 approve of Biden’s job performance, while 76% disapprove.

That’s slightly worse than February when 21% approved and 76% disapproved," Pfannenstiel observed. This indicates a decline among younger voters since the beginning of the year.

The data highlights escalating challenges for Biden’s campaign. The significant gap between Trump and Biden is indicative of broader national trends which have seen Biden struggle to maintain favorability across various demographics.

Historical Context and Implications

The political dynamics in Iowa showcase more than just localized sentiments -- they reflect a national discontent with the current administration. With Trump comfortably maintaining an 18-point lead and growing support even post-conviction, there appears to be a stabilizing base for the former president amidst his legal battles.

For Biden, the challenge lies not only in bridging the considerable voter gap in crucial states like Iowa but also in addressing the broader disapproval that seems to be waning his overall appeal.

Conclusion

In summary, the Des Moines Register/Mediacom/Selzer & Co. poll reveals former President Donald Trump significantly leads President Joe Biden by 18 points among Iowa's likely voters.

Conducted shortly after Trump's conviction, this survey underscores a persistent and growing support base for Trump, juxtaposed against a sharp decline in Biden’s approval ratings both in Iowa and nationwide.

With notable disapproval from younger voters and the general populace, Biden faces an uphill battle leading up to the next election.

This poll not only serves as a barometer for Iowa’s political climate but also mirrors a broader national trend of disapproval toward the current administration.