Rumors swept through the House Republican conference on Wednesday that Rep. Neal Dunn, R-Fla., is weighing whether to leave Congress before his term ends — a move that would tighten an already precarious GOP majority at exactly the wrong moment.

Dunn, who announced last month he would not seek re-election, is now reportedly discussing with House leadership the possibility of not serving out the remainder of his term, which was set to conclude at the end of 2026. When reporters caught up with him, Dunn offered two words:

No comment.

That's not a denial.

The math that keeps leadership up at night

Speaker Mike Johnson is already managing one of the thinnest margins in modern congressional history. If Dunn departs before the March special election to fill former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene's vacated Georgia seat, the House margin drops to 217–214. That's not a governing majority — it's a hostage negotiation with every backbencher who has a pet cause and a press secretary.

According to Fox News, the margin of error stays at a single seat likely until August, when California holds a special election to replace the late Rep. Doug LaMalfa. Until then, every vote is a high-wire act, and every absence — planned or otherwise — becomes a potential crisis.

Johnson, for his part, is doing what any Speaker in his position would do: making the case for Dunn to stay. He spoke to reporters with the careful diplomacy of a man trying not to push a colleague out the door while also not pretending everything is fine:

He is a beloved member of Congress and a great man. And, you know, he's informed us he's not going to run for re-election. And what he does from here forward, I'm not sure.

When pressed further, Johnson deflected:

You need to ask him about it. But I've encouraged him to stay and be part of this, and I think he wants to do that. And so you have to ask him all the circumstances.

Read between the lines: Johnson doesn't have a firm commitment, and he knows it.

Florida's election calendar complicates everything

House lawmakers are already in contact with Gov. Ron DeSantis' office about the timing of a potential special election — specifically, whether Florida election law would allow Dunn to remain in office until after a special primary concludes. Under Florida's typical timeline, a special primary takes place 120 to 130 days after a member's early departure, with the special general election following roughly 70 to 80 days after that.

Do the math. If Dunn leaves in the near term, Republicans could be staring at a vacant seat deep into the fall — during what promises to be a legislative calendar packed with budget fights and policy pushes. Reports suggest that if the remain-in-office option doesn't pan out, Dunn is unlikely to leave at all. That's a small comfort, but it's something.

Meanwhile, a crowded primary is reportedly forming in Dunn's district, which means the eventual replacement fight could get messy regardless of timing.

The deeper problem

Dunn has served in Congress for nearly a decade. His departure — whenever it comes — isn't the disease. It's the symptom. The Republican House majority was built to be fragile, and every early resignation, every vacancy, every special election turns governance into a game of Jenga played with legislative priorities as the stakes.

Greene's abrupt departure already forced a March special election. LaMalfa's passing triggered another in California, where Gov. Gavin Newsom controls the scheduling. Republicans don't get to set the tempo on either of those races. Adding a third vacancy in Florida — even temporarily — transforms a manageable problem into a genuine governing crisis.

This is the reality of a narrow majority: it doesn't just limit what you can pass. It limits what you can afford to lose. Every member who walks away early isn't just vacating a seat. They're handing leverage to Democrats who need only peel off a handful of votes to stall the entire agenda.

What comes next

DeSantis' office has not responded to inquiries about the special election timeline. Dunn isn't talking. Johnson is projecting calm while quietly working the phones. The next few weeks will determine whether this remains a rumor or becomes a full-blown headache for House Republicans.

The majority is real, but it's threadbare. And threadbare majorities don't survive members who decide they'd rather be somewhere else.