The latest poll in the closely watched Montana Senate race is raising alarms for Democrats.

According to an AARP poll conducted between August 25 and 29, Republican challenger Tim Sheehy is leading incumbent Democrat Sen. Jon Tester by a significant margin, holding 49% of the vote to Tester's 41% when third-party candidates are included, as the Daily Wire reports.

The poll highlights a growing concern for Democrats as they face the possibility of losing control of the Senate if Vice President Kamala Harris ascends to the presidency.

The poll not only shows Sheehy ahead by 8 points in a crowded field but also reveals a 6-point lead in a head-to-head matchup, with Sheehy leading 51% to 45%. This margin falls within the poll’s margin of error, which is +/-4% for the overall sample and +/-3.5% for voters aged 50 and older.

Montana Poll Reflects Broader Political Trends

The AARP survey, which sampled a disproportionate number of Republicans compared to Democrats, reflects similar results from other polls of the Montana Senate race. Democrats are increasingly nervous about the outcome in Montana, given the broader context of Senate races across the country.

With Democrats projected to lose the Senate race in West Virginia, Montana has become a crucial battleground. Winning Montana, along with seven other competitive Senate seats, could lead to a 50-50 split in the chamber. In this scenario, the vice president, if she is from the Democratic party, would hold the tie-breaking vote, making this race a potential determining factor for Senate control.

Tester Faces Strong Opposition in Re-election Bid

Tester, a three-term senator, has chosen to distance himself from national Democratic politics. He skipped the Democratic National Convention and has refrained from endorsing Vice President Harris for the presidency, a move that could alienate some national Democratic supporters. He has consistently emphasized that his campaign is focused on local Montana issues, rather than being tied to national politics. “Two reasons — because I’m focused on my race, and number two, people want to nationalize this race, and this isn’t about national politics," Tester told NBC Montana. "This is about Montana."

Despite Tester’s efforts to keep the race local, the national implications are undeniable. A Democratic loss in Montana would give Republicans a clear 51-49 majority in the Senate, stripping Democrats of their legislative control if Harris takes the White House.

Key Details About Poll

The AARP poll that has Sheehy in the lead is consistent with the RealClearPolitics polling average, which currently has Sheehy up by 5.2 points. The survey captured the opinions of voters across Montana, including Republicans, Democrats, and Independents, providing a broad view of the electorate.

One factor in the survey that may influence the results is the overrepresentation of Republicans compared to Democrats. The poll included twice as many Republicans as Democrats, which could skew the results slightly in favor of Sheehy. However, the margin remains within the poll's margin of error, and the trend reflects similar findings in other polls.

Democrats Face Steep Odds in Senate Battle

For Democrats, the stakes in Montana are higher than just winning a Senate seat. If Harris wins the presidency, the Democrats would need every Senate seat possible to maintain control, including the highly competitive race in Montana. Losing here would make their path to Senate control nearly impossible, especially as other races in states like West Virginia already lean heavily toward Republican victories.

Given the delicate balance of power in the Senate, a victory for Sheehy in Montana would deliver a critical blow to Democratic hopes of retaining legislative influence. If Republicans secure 51 seats, they would control the Senate, regardless of the outcome in the White House.

Montana Voters Key to Senate Control

Voters over 50, a crucial demographic in Montana, are heavily represented in the AARP poll. The margin of error for this group is narrower, suggesting their preferences could significantly influence the outcome of the race. This age group typically leans more conservative, which may account for Sheehy’s lead in the poll.

As the race progresses, Tester will likely aim to sway these older voters, many of whom are concerned with local issues such as healthcare, the economy, and rural infrastructure. Meanwhile, Sheehy is positioning himself as the candidate for change, tapping into frustrations with national Democratic leadership.

Tester’s National Disconnect Could Prove Costly

Despite being a three-term senator with deep ties to Montana, Tester's decision to distance himself from national Democratic figures like Harris could alienate some voters. While his strategy aims to emphasize his focus on local concerns, it may weaken his support from the national Democratic base.

Tester has consistently framed his campaign around Montana-specific issues, trying to fend off attacks that tie him to the broader Democratic Party. However, the race is increasingly being viewed as a referendum on national politics, especially with the Senate majority hanging in the balance.

Republicans Eye Senate Majority

With polls showing a tight race in Montana, Republicans are optimistic about their chances of flipping the seat. A Sheehy victory would not only secure the Senate majority for Republicans but also send a strong message about the direction of the country heading into the 2024 presidential election.

Both parties are expected to pour significant resources into the Montana race as Election Day approaches. With control of the Senate at stake, the outcome of this race could have far-reaching consequences for the next presidential administration and beyond.

Conclusion: High Stakes for Both Parties

As the Montana Senate race heats up, the stakes could not be higher for both parties. The latest poll shows Republican Tim Sheehy with a commanding lead over Democratic incumbent Jon Tester.

With Democrats needing to secure Montana to have any chance of maintaining Senate control, the outcome of this race will likely play a pivotal role in the balance of power in Washington.  The race remains fluid, and both candidates will continue to push hard as the November election approaches.