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Statistician Nate Silver Suggests Biden May Need to Drop out of 2024 Race

 June 11, 2024

Statistician Nate Silver has ignited a debate among Democrats by suggesting that President Joe Biden should consider stepping down from the 2024 election due to his all-time low approval ratings and concerns over his age.

Silver asserts that Biden's declining popularity and Trump's lead in battleground states pose substantial risks for a Democratic victory, as the Daily Wire reports, and that an exit from the race may be in order.

Nate Silver Questions Biden's Re-Election Bid

Long known for his electoral prognostications, Silver took to the social media platform X to propose that President Joe Biden reconsider his re-election campaign. Silver's suggestion came in light of Biden's approval rating recently plummeting to an unprecedented 37.6%, according to FiveThirtyEight's average of polls.

The timing of this sharp decline is critical, as it comes just five months before the 2024 election. Silver highlighted the mounting public concerns regarding Biden's age and the economic challenges the country faces, including 8% inflation over the past two years.

Silver emphasized that despite the inherent risks, the discussion about Biden potentially dropping out of the race is warranted. "But there’s some threshold below which continuing to run is a bigger risk," he stated. "Are we there yet? I don’t know. But it’s more than fair to ask."

Public Concerns And Economic Challenges

Public apprehension about Biden's age has been a recurring theme in political discourse. The president is currently 81 years old, and many Americans have expressed doubts about his capacity to lead for another term.

The economic situation has further complicated Biden's re-election prospects. With inflation rates hitting 8% over a span of two years, households across the nation have felt the squeeze, adding to the overall sentiment of dissatisfaction.

Reflecting on these issues, Silver remarked, "If I’d told you 10 years ago a president would seek re-election at 81 despite a supermajority of Americans having concerns about his age, and then we’d hit 8% inflation for 2 years, you wouldn’t be surprised he was an underdog for reelection. You’d be surprised it was even close!"

Critique And Social Media Reactions

Silver's concerns about Biden's viability as a candidate also stem from a broader strategic perspective. He argued that Biden's re-election campaign faces significant hurdles that could be avoided if he opted out. Silver suggested that the Democratic Party might have been better positioned if Biden had chosen not to run a year earlier, allowing for a more robust primary process.

On X, Silver encountered criticism from users who pointed out former President Donald Trump's legal troubles. One user specifically noted Trump's conviction on 34 counts of falsifying business records.

In response, Silver maintained that Biden's campaign has its own unique set of challenges. He stated, "'Trump should drop out too!' is such a weird dunk on people who are pointing out that Biden has big challenges." He further added, "Yes, Trump should drop out! I agree! Biden would lose by 7 points, but I agree, the Republican Party and the country would be better served by a different nominee."

Polls And Predictions For The 2024 Election

Polling data underscores the growing concerns surrounding Biden's re-election chances. According to the RealClearPolitics average of polls, Biden is trailing Trump in most surveys and is notably behind in all seven crucial battleground states. This revelation was highlighted by Silver as he discussed the shifting dynamics over the past year.

The statistician admitted that his outlook on Biden's prospects has turned more pessimistic. "If you’d asked me a year ago, I would have told you that Joe Biden was a reasonably clear favorite in the event of a rematch against Donald Trump," Silver said. "Biden’s situation has become considerably worse."

Silver also touched upon the hypothetical scenario of a younger Biden facing Trump. "If he were 10 years younger, he might still be a 65/35 favorite," he noted. However, Silver conceded that Biden's candidacy might be significantly hampered by his age, making him an underdog in the forthcoming election. "But if his campaign is substantially encumbered by his age, he’s probably the underdog," he concluded.

Conclusion

In summarizing Silver's stance, it is clear that the statistician believes the Democrats face tough choices as the 2024 election approaches.

President Biden's record-low approval rating, concerns about his age, and prevailing economic issues form a challenging backdrop for his re-election bid.

Silver's suggestion that Biden should consider dropping out underscores the precarious nature of the current political landscape, as data indicates a narrowing advantage over Trump.

While the debate continues, Silver's analysis offers a stark reminder of the strategic considerations that could influence the Democratic Party's path forward.