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Trump Ahead of Harris by 2 Points in CNBC Poll

 August 9, 2024

A newly released election poll showcases a surprising turn of events following Kamala Harris's emergence as the Democratic Party's standard-bearer.

Recent CNBC polling reveals former President Donald Trump as holding a small lead and remaining a viable candidate with significant support on economic matters and growing favorability among certain age demographics, as National Review reports.

The CNBC survey has painted a somewhat optimistic picture for Trump, suggesting the former president could be a stronger contender than previously thought. While other polls have not been as favorable, this one underscores Trump's appeal, particularly on pressing economic concerns.

Trump's Economic Policies Gain Traction

Economic issues have always been a cornerstone of Trump’s political strategy. According to the poll, a substantial portion of Americans hold a positive view of their financial prospects under a Trump administration.

By a decisive 2-to-1 margin, Americans express confidence that they will have better financial outcomes with Trump at the helm. This perception is especially robust among Republicans, with a striking 79% believing in improved economic fortunes if Trump secures the White House.

Comparatively, only 48% of Democrats feel their financial situation would benefit under a Harris administration, with a significant 42% stating it would not make any difference. Independents are notably split, with only 31% seeing financial improvement under Trump, and an even smaller percentage, 10%, expecting betterment under Harris.

Young Voters Favor Harris

The poll also reveals intriguing shifts in voter age demographics. Harris has a clear edge among younger voters, who prefer her significantly more compared to Biden. Her youthful appeal translates to a 10-point lead over Trump among young voters, indicating her potential to galvanize the younger electorate.

On the contrary, there's been a notable 12-point swing among voters aged 35-49 towards Trump. This shift suggests that Trump is gaining traction among middle-aged voters who may be more focused on economic stability and policy continuity.

The Change Candidate Perception

Another critical factor influencing voter preferences is the perception of who can bring positive change to the country. In this regard, Harris and Trump are almost tied, with Harris slightly ahead by a margin of 39% to 38%.

This neck-and-neck competition indicates a complex electoral landscape where both candidates are seen as potential agents of change. The narrow margin reflects that voters are still weighing their options, with neither candidate dominating the narrative of change unequivocally.

Independents Remain Skeptical

The poll indicates that independents are the most skeptical about economic prospects under both Trump and Harris. A substantial 54% of independents feel that the election outcome will not impact their financial situation, showcasing a broader disillusionment or indifference towards the economic narratives of both candidates.

This skeptical stance among independents could play a pivotal role in the upcoming election, as their votes might swing the results in favor of the candidate who can effectively address their concerns.

Implications for Both Campaigns

For Trump, the poll results are an encouraging sign, reaffirming the importance of focusing on economic issues. His campaign might capitalize on this strength, emphasizing past economic achievements and promising future prosperity.

On the other hand, Harris' campaign could focus on consolidating her support among young voters and presenting herself as the candidate of change. Bridging the gap with middle-aged voters and independents could be essential for her success.

Conclusion

In summary, the latest CNBC poll offers a nuanced outlook for the 2024 election. It reveals a close race between Trump and Harris, with Trump's economic policies gaining significant favor among certain demographics.

While Harris garners strong support from younger voters, the perception of positive change remains almost evenly split between both candidates.

Independents' skepticism towards economic promises adds another layer of complexity to the electoral dynamics.

Both campaigns have clear areas on which to focus as they navigate the intricate landscape leading up to the November election.