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Trump Edges Ahead of Harris in Michigan Poll

 September 5, 2024

Former President Donald Trump has taken a narrow lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in the state of Michigan, according to a WDIV/Detroit News survey conducted in late August.

The polling data reveals a highly competitive race between Trump and Harris, with Michigan emerging as a critical battleground state, as Breitbart reports.

The poll, conducted from Aug. 26 to Aug. 29, sampled the opinions of likely voters in Michigan. Trump garnered 44.7% of support, while Harris was close behind with 43.5%.

The poll also highlighted that 4.7% of voters backed former independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and 2.3% favored a third-party candidate. The remaining 4.8% of voters were undecided at the time of the poll.

Definite Voters Show Slight Edge for Harris

Among the subset of voters identified as "definite voters"—those who expressed certainty about casting their ballots -- the results shifted slightly.

In this group, Harris had a narrow lead over Trump, with 45.7% supporting the Vice President compared to 44.1% favoring Trump. Kennedy maintained 3.9% support, and third-party candidates saw 2.3%. Notably, 3.9% of definite voters remained undecided.

The tightness of the race in Michigan reflects the overall competitive nature of the 2024 presidential campaign, where small changes in voter preferences could shift the balance in favor of either candidate.

Other Polls Reflect Mixed Results

This is not the only recent poll to gauge voter sentiment in Michigan. An ActiVote poll conducted over the course of a month, from July 28 to Aug. 28, presented a slightly different picture. In this survey, Harris held a razor-thin advantage, with 50.1% of likely voters supporting her compared to 49.9% for Trump. This near-even split further demonstrates the competitiveness of the race.

Meanwhile, a separate AARP poll, which took place from Aug. 7 to Aug. 8, showed Trump with a modest lead over Harris. According to that poll, Trump led Harris 45% to 43%. Kennedy's support was noted at 6%, while Jill Stein of the Green Party and independent candidate Cornel West each received 1% of the vote. These results also indicate the presence of strong third-party candidates, which could impact the overall outcome in Michigan.

Battleground States Show Trump Leading

The importance of Michigan in the broader 2024 presidential election cannot be overstated, as it is considered one of several key battleground states. A Reuters/Ipsos survey found that Trump was leading Harris in a total of seven battleground states, which included Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Nevada. In these states, Trump held a slight 45% to 43% edge over Harris.

The competition between Trump and Harris across these pivotal states underscores the challenges facing both campaigns as they work to secure the necessary electoral votes to win the presidency. With Michigan being a historically contested state, both candidates are likely to prioritize outreach and campaign efforts there in the remaining months before the election.

Michigan's Role As Key Battleground

Michigan, with its 15 electoral votes, has been a focal point in recent presidential elections. In 2016, Trump narrowly won the state, helping to secure his path to the White House. However, in 2020, President Joe Biden won Michigan by a narrow margin, reclaiming it for the Democrats. The close margins in past elections reflect the state's swing status, and 2024 is shaping up to be no different.

The results of these various polls suggest that Michigan voters are still deeply divided, with neither Trump nor Harris holding a commanding lead. The presence of third-party candidates like Kennedy, Stein, and West adds another layer of complexity to the race, as their support could siphon votes away from the two major party candidates.

Impact of Undecided Voters

One of the critical factors that could determine the outcome in Michigan is the percentage of undecided voters. In the WDIV/Detroit News poll, 4.8% of likely voters and 3.9% of definite voters were still undecided as of late August. These undecided voters could tip the balance in favor of either Trump or Harris, depending on how they ultimately decide to cast their ballots.

In a race as close as this one, even a small shift in voter preference could make a significant difference. Both campaigns will likely focus heavily on swaying undecided voters in the weeks leading up to Election Day.

Conclusion: A Neck-And-Neck Race

The latest polling data shows a highly competitive race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris in Michigan, with the outcome still very much in flux.

Polls from various sources offer slightly different pictures, but all agree that the race is tight, with small margins separating the candidates. Michigan's status as a key battleground state makes it a critical focus for both campaigns as they vie for the state's 15 electoral votes.

As Election Day approaches, the undecided voters and the support for third-party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein, and Cornel West could play pivotal roles in determining the final result. The race in Michigan, much like the broader 2024 presidential campaign, remains too close to call.