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Trump Erases Biden's Lead in NH Poll

 May 22, 2024

Former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden are currently in a statistical tie in New Hampshire, according to a recent poll.

This new data from the Granite State reflects a significant tightening of the race from earlier this year, showing a shift in voter preferences, as the Washington Examiner reports.

Trump Takes Narrow Lead Over Biden

The recent NH Journal poll, released on Monday, shows Trump narrowly leading Biden by 0.1%. Specifically, Trump garnered 36.6% of the vote, while Biden followed closely with 36.5%.

This narrow lead underscores a dramatic change from a January USA Today/Boston Globe/Suffolk University poll, which had Biden leading Trump by 42% to 34%. The same poll also highlights the role of independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has 14.6% support. His presence is proving to be a significant factor in the race.

Poll Reflects Changing Dynamics

The NH Journal poll, conducted from Wednesday to Monday, carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.33 percentage points. This tight margin means the race could swing in either direction.

In January, the USA Today/Boston Globe/Suffolk University poll showed Kennedy with only 8% support. This indicates that his support has nearly doubled. Trump holds a lead among all age groups except those aged 65 and older, where Biden has the advantage. This demographic detail could become critical as the election approaches.

Independent Candidates and Their Impact

Kennedy Jr. is drawing more support from Democratic voters than Republican ones, with 11.2% of Democrats backing him compared to only 6.6% of Republicans.

Among independent voters, the poll shows Biden leading with 27.5%, followed by Trump at 24.2%, and Kennedy close behind at 23.2%. The influence of independents cannot be underestimated.

Additionally, 12.4% of registered voters do not currently plan to support any of the candidates. This includes a notable 25.1% of independents who remain undecided.

Historical Context and Current Strategies

Historically, New Hampshire has been an incredibly competitive state. In the 2016 presidential election, Trump lost New Hampshire by less than 3,000 votes, roughly 0.4 percentage points.

In the 2020 election, the gap widened significantly, with Biden winning New Hampshire by approximately 60,000 votes, nearly 7.5 percentage points. However, current polls indicate a more competitive race this time around.

The Cook Political Report currently considers New Hampshire to be "likely Democratic." Despite this, Trump's campaign continues to assert that it will contest states traditionally seen as Democratic strongholds, such as Minnesota and Virginia.

Electoral Strategies Going Forward

Trump’s campaign has openly stated its goal of competing in states that are generally considered part of the Democratic column. This strategy includes focusing on swing states and traditionally Democratic territories.

The recent NH Journal poll results suggest that Trump has a feasible path forward in these traditionally Democratic regions. The former president's campaign aims to capitalize on these emerging opportunities. The Biden campaign will need to address the evident shift in voter preferences to maintain its standing in pivotal states like New Hampshire.

Implications for the 2024 Elections

The tightening race in New Hampshire indicates the potential for a highly competitive election. Both campaigns will likely adjust their strategies based on the evolving poll numbers.

As the electoral landscape in New Hampshire continues to change, future polls will be crucial in understanding the dynamics between these three candidates.

With less than half a year to go before the presidential elections, both candidates will be closely monitoring these significant shifts in voter sentiment.

The presence of an influential independent candidate like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. adds an intriguing dimension to the race that could alter traditional voting patterns.


The NH Journal poll shows a statistical tie between Trump and Biden in New Hampshire, reflecting a significant shift from earlier polls.

Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s increased support suggests he could play a crucial role in the outcome. Both campaigns will need to reassess their strategies as they compete for pivotal states and votes.