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Trump Gains Traction In Virginia Against Biden: Poll

 June 9, 2024

A new poll reveals that President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are tied among Virginia voters ahead of the 2024 presidential election, with each securing 48% of the vote in a head-to-head matchup.

The inclusion of third-party candidates adds complexity to the race, narrowing Biden's lead in the Old Dominion, as the Washington Examiner reports.

Virginia Voters Are Divided Between Biden And Trump

According to a Fox News poll, both Biden and Trump are locked in a close contest in Virginia, each garnering 48% support. This is a significant shift from the 2020 presidential election, in which Biden won Virginia by a 10-point margin.

The poll highlights Trump's strong support among specific voter demographics in Virginia. Notably, Trump leads with 80% of white evangelical Christians, 63% of rural voters, and 56% of voters without a college degree.

Independents, a crucial segment of the electorate, are nearly evenly split, with 45% backing Biden and 43% supporting Trump. This tight division underscores the competitive nature of the race in Virginia.

Impact Of Third-Party Candidates on the Race

The presence of third-party candidates in the poll results further complicates the dynamics of the race. When these candidates are factored in, Biden's support drops to 42%, while Trump's falls to 41%.

Among the third-party candidates considered, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. garners 9% support, primarily siphoning votes from Trump’s base. Cornel West and Jill Stein each receive 2% of the vote. It's important to note that no third-party candidates are currently on the ballot in Virginia.

This shift indicates that the inclusion of third-party candidates could play a pivotal role in the election outcome, potentially affecting both major party candidates' vote shares.

Effect Of Trump's Conviction on Voter Preferences

An interesting aspect of the poll is the impact of Trump's felony conviction on voters’ preferences. The poll shows that 66% of respondents believe that Trump's conviction will not influence their vote.

Conversely, 33% of respondents view the conviction as a significant factor in their voting decision, favoring Biden by a 41-point margin. Among those who are not swayed by the conviction, Trump leads by 21 points.

Moreover, over half of the respondents believe that Trump's trial was conducted fairly. This perception of fairness might shape voter attitudes as the election approaches.

Historical Context and Recent Developments in Virginia

Virginia has been a stronghold for Democratic presidential candidates in recent years. Biden's substantial win in 2020 and previous Democratic victories illustrate its strategic importance.

In contrast, the last Republican to carry Virginia in a presidential election was George W. Bush in 2004. Trump's recent losses in Virginia, by over 212,000 votes in 2016 and by 451,000 votes in 2020, highlight the challenge he faces in flipping the state.

However, Trump’s campaign sees potential for a red flip, bolstered by Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin's 2021 gubernatorial victory, where he secured 50.6% of the vote. This win signals possible shifts in the political landscape of Virginia.

Biden Campaign's Strategic Focus on Virginia

Recognizing the critical nature of Virginia, the Biden campaign has made strategic moves to solidify support in the state. Recently, the campaign opened its first office in Northern Virginia, underscoring Virginia's importance in the upcoming election.

Biden’s efforts to maintain voter confidence in the state reflect the narrow margins indicated by the latest polling data. With the presidential race expected to be closely contested, securing Virginia's electoral votes could be pivotal.

Virginia's status as a battleground state makes it a focal point for both campaigns, with each side aiming to sway undecided voters and solidify their bases.


The recent poll showcasing a tie between Biden and Trump in Virginia has intensified the spotlight on the state as a critical battleground for the 2024 presidential election.

While Biden's previous victory in Virginia provides some confidence, the presence of third-party candidates and the impact of Trump's felony conviction present new challenges.

Both campaigns are actively engaged in strategies to secure support, recognizing Virginia's potential to sway the overall election outcome.