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Trump Leads Key 2024 Electoral Forecasts, Biden Campaign Responds

 June 26, 2024

Former President Donald Trump is currently leading in various electoral vote forecasts for the 2024 presidential election, with some forecasts showing him ahead by significant margins.

The news of Trump's surge has prompted the Biden campaign to invest heavily in advertising to close the gap in key battleground states, as the Washington Examiner reports.

Trump Focuses on Electoral Forecasts

Despite previous skepticism about the Electoral College system, former President Donald Trump’s team is now closely monitoring electoral forecasts.

According to recent analyses, Trump leads in four major electoral vote counts, with margins as high as 66 votes.

Analysis from the Economist shows Trump leading with 302 electoral votes to Biden's 236, giving him a 70% chance of winning. Another forecast by Decision Desk has Trump ahead with 282 electoral votes to Biden's 256, translating to a 58% chance of winning.

JHK Forecasts indicates a similar trend, showing Trump leading 287-251 with a 62% chance of victory. Additionally, the FiveThirtyEight forecast has Trump narrowly leading with 270 electoral votes to Biden's 268.

Biden Campaign Reacts to Trump's Lead

Larry Sabato's Center for Politics "crystal ball" analysis further highlights Trump’s advantage, showing him leading Biden 251-241. While national public opinion polls indicate a close race, surveys in key battleground states are more critical.

In response to Trump's lead, the Biden campaign has ramped up its advertising efforts in these crucial states. Biden's team is spending millions to counteract Trump's advantage in battleground states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

Republican pollster John McLaughlin commented on the situation, saying, “Joe Biden and his allies have been spending tens of millions in attack ads there.” He also noted that while Biden has been actively visiting these states, Trump has been occupied with legal matters in Manhattan.

Expanded Battleground States

McLaughlin emphasized that despite these efforts, Trump is still winning in key battleground states. He added that the battleground has potentially expanded to include Virginia, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, Maine, and possibly New York.

“In spite of it all, the polls have President Trump winning the battleground states, and if anything, the battleground has expanded to Virginia, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, and Maine — maybe even New York,” McLaughlin said.

McLaughlin further suggested that Biden’s offer to debate Trump could be a strategic move to shake up the race and help the president gain ground in battleground states.

Implications of Debates and Legal Battles

“Why else would incumbent Joe Biden want to debate? If President Trump keeps winning, I’m sure [New York hush money case] Judge Juan Merchan will get his orders to put President Trump in jail. President Trump is winning a historic battle,” McLaughlin added.

The emphasis on debates and legal issues indicates the high stakes of the upcoming election. Both campaigns are pulling out all the stops to secure victory in November.

Trump’s legal battles have been a point of contention, yet his lead in the forecasts suggests that these issues have not significantly swayed his base. Biden’s strategy of heavy advertising and potential debates highlights the competitive nature of the race.


In summary, former President Donald Trump is leading in several electoral vote forecasts for the 2024 presidential election, prompting the Biden campaign to increase their advertising efforts in key battleground states.

Despite legal challenges and intense campaigning, Trump maintains an edge in states critical to securing the presidency.

The expanded battleground map and potential debates indicate a fierce contest ahead as both candidates vie for the crucial electoral votes.