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Trump Surges to Lead in National Poll in Wake of Conviction

 June 15, 2024

Following former President Donald Trump's recent felony conviction, Reuters/Ipsos polls indicate a notable shift in the political landscape, placing Trump ahead of President Joe Biden in the national race.

Despite legal challenges and recent guilty findings, Trump's electoral strength is growing, as evidenced by recent polling data, as Breitbart reports.

In late May, a Reuters/Ipsos poll showed Biden holding a slim 2-point lead over Trump, with Biden at 41% and Trump at 39%.

This trend was consistent in a five-way race including third-party candidates, where Biden maintained a lead of 39% to Trump's 37%.

By mid-June, the landscape had shifted. A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted on June 10 and 11 among 930 registered voters revealed a reversal with Trump gaining 2 points and Biden losing 2 points, resulting in Trump leading 41% to 39%. This represents a significant four-point swing in Trump's favor over a span of just ten days.

Shift in Polling Dynamics Post-Conviction

This recent poll is the seventh conducted since Trump's conviction, all of which have shown steady support for Trump. Despite initial expectations, the data suggests minimal impact on his political standing, with Trump gradually gaining an advantage.

At present, Trump holds a consistent, albeit narrow, lead in national polling averages.

Comparatively, the trajectory indicates a stronger position for Trump now than for his Democratic adversaries in previous election cycles.

For instance, on the same day in 2020, Biden led by 8.4 points in the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average poll of national polls. Similarly, in 2016, Hillary Clinton led by 5.5 points on this date.

Trump's Strong Performance in Multi-Candidate Race

In the RCP average poll that includes third-party candidates, Trump currently leads by an average of 2.9 points. Furthermore, Trump has consistently led in all three post-conviction national polls considering a five-way race.

These findings indicate that Trump is polling stronger than any Republican candidate since 2004. His consistent lead across several polls underscores a trend of growing support, despite his legal entanglements.

Perceptions of Campaign Dynamics

Public perception of the candidates' campaigns also plays a role in these trends. Trump's campaign is perceived as dynamic and proactive. Phrases such as “Trump is running like a winner, looking like a winner, and winning” aptly capture the essence of his campaign's momentum.

Conversely, Biden's campaign is often viewed in a less favorable light. Descriptions like "Biden’s campaign appears defensive and lacking a core message" illustrate the challenges faced by the sitting president. Additionally, the perception of Biden's performance at significant events, such as the critical view of his presence at the G7, impacts voter confidence.

Betting Averages Reflect Polling Trends

Betting averages further reflect the polling trends, with Trump leading Biden 51 to 35 points.

These numbers not only reinforce the polling data but also highlight a growing belief among the electorate in Trump's potential to secure another term.

Conclusion

The data from seven national polls since Trump's conviction consistently shows a negligible effect on his political standing, with some indicators even suggesting an advantage. Notably, Trump has gained a small but significant lead over Biden in several key measures, including the RCP average poll and betting averages.

Overall, despite facing legal challenges and ongoing criticism, Trump appears to be gaining political momentum. In contrast, Biden’s campaign is portrayed as faltering. This dynamic offers a complex landscape for voters as the nation heads towards the next presidential election.

In summary, the evolving polling data since Trump's conviction underscores a shift in the political landscape, with former President Trump gaining ground on President Biden, reflecting a complex and fluid electoral environment.