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Trump Campaign Now Sees Multiple Routes to Election Day Victory

 October 15, 2024

With just weeks to the election, former President Donald Trump has numerous strategic pathways laid out to potentially secure a second term, and his campaign is focusing on pivotal swing states that could tip the balance in his favor.

Former President Trump is potentially poised to make a White House return with potential victories in crucial swing states, which offer several scenarios for him to reach or exceed the 270 electoral vote threshold needed for a win, as Breitbart reports.

Trump's electoral journey might commence with him securing 219 votes, contrasted with Vice President Kamala Harris's 226, before any swing states are factored into the mix.

The battleground states pivotal to this election include Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin.

Analyzing Trump's Easiest Path

To achieve the necessary 270 votes, Trump’s simplest strategy involves winning Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.

Historically, Georgia and North Carolina have leaned toward Republican candidates, although they both supported President Joe Biden in 2020. Notably, North Carolina has favored Republican candidates in five of the last six presidential elections.

As of Monday, Trump held a narrow lead of 0.5 percentage points in both Georgia and North Carolina according to RealClearPolitics polling averages. In Pennsylvania, the former president maintains a slim 0.3 percentage point margin.

Exploring Alternative Routes to Victory

Beyond the straightforward pathway, Trump has other possible routes. One includes winning Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Michigan, granting him 277 electoral votes.

In this scenario, he leads in Arizona by 1% and edges out in Michigan by 0.9%, based on RCP averages. However, he trails Harris slightly by 0.3% in Wisconsin.

Another viable combination for Trump is claiming wins in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, yielding 272 electoral votes.

Potential Influence of Western States

Yet another path comprises victories in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Nevada, resulting in 271 electoral votes. Trump has a narrow 0.2% lead in Nevada per RCP polling averages.

Should Harris win Pennsylvania and North Carolina, Trump can still secure 271 votes through wins in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

Arizona's voting history shows a tendency towards Republican candidates, with exception of the 2020 election, when Biden narrowly defeated Trump by 0.3 points.

Polling Challenges and Strategic Realities

The overarching importance of polling cannot be understated. Currently, the RealClearPolitics polling average indicates that, if realized, Trump could achieve 302 electoral votes while conceding only Wisconsin.

However, the impact of local politics, particularly in North Carolina, could influence the outcome.

Mark Robinson, a candidate for governor who is embroiled in scandal, could inadvertently aid Harris by negatively affecting Trump's popularity, possibly swinging the state in her favor.

In conclusion, Trump’s potential victory paths emphasize both historically Republican-leaning states and strategic navigations through critical battlegrounds.

While multiple scenarios offer pathways to the presidency, the ultimate outcome is contingent on his ability to secure leads and maintain voter support in these key states.