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Trump Takes Lead Over Biden in Key Swing States

 July 9, 2024

Former President Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden in some potentially critical ways, according to a recent Emerson/DemNextGen poll.

The survey indicates Trump holds leads over Biden in six pivotal swing states, with varying margins, as Breitbart reports.

In Pennsylvania, Trump is ahead with 48% compared to Biden's 43%. In Wisconsin, Trump leads with 47% against Biden's 44%. Michigan shows a tighter race, with Trump at 45% and Biden at 44%. Trump’s lead is more pronounced in Nevada with 47% to Biden's 41%, Arizona with 46% to Biden's 42%, and Georgia with 47% to Biden's 42%.

These recent figures show an increase in Trump's lead in Georgia by 1%, Nevada by 4%, and Pennsylvania by 3% compared to the poll conducted in June. However, details about the sample size and margin of error for this poll were not immediately available.

Key States Crucial for Presidential Victory

Doug Sosnik, a longtime Democratic adviser, emphasized the importance of seven states -- Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina -- in deciding the presidency.

He noted, “If Trump wins one or more of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, Biden’s chances of obtaining 270 electoral votes become narrower.”

The Emerson poll follows a series of unfavorable surveys for Biden post the presidential debate. These negative indicators are adding to the concerns regarding Biden’s re-election campaign.

Negative Polls Add to Biden's Challenges

Other recent polls have also painted a challenging picture for Biden. According to a Suffolk University poll, 41% of Democratic voters want Biden to withdraw from the 2024 race, while 51% prefer him to stay on the ticket.

A YouGov poll revealed that 72% of voters believe Biden lacks the mental and cognitive health necessary for the presidency, and an equal percentage wants him to drop out of the race.

A New York Times/Siena poll shows Trump leading Biden by 6 points, marking a three-point swing from the previous week and the largest lead recorded for Trump in Times polling since 2015.

Similarly, a Wall Street Journal poll indicates Trump with a 6-point lead over Biden, the largest margin in a Journal survey to date.

Internal Polls Reflect Similar Trends

An internal poll from Open Labs leaked a memo stating, “Biden’s vote share in the two-way horse race declined by -0.8pp,” and his “vote share against Trump in the multi-way also declined by -0.8pp.”

This memo highlighted “the largest single-week drop since horse race tracking began in late 2021.”

Furthermore, a CNN poll revealed Trump leading Biden with 49% to Biden's 43%, reinforcing the trend of Trump's growing lead in key metrics.

Conclusion

The recent Emerson/DemNextGen poll results, combined with various other polls, suggest a challenging road ahead for President Joe Biden as he prepares for the 2024 presidential election.

Trump’s leads in six crucial swing states and the consistent negative polling for Biden underline the concerns about his electoral viability. The upcoming months will be critical for both campaigns as they navigate these evolving dynamics and strategize for the 2024 election.

These polls and trends underscore the importance of swing states in the electoral process, highlighting the significant challenges faced by President Biden.

The outcome in these battleground states will be pivotal in determining the next President of the United States.